KJNL NL Preview

Staff Writer Brad Atkinson
KJNL Dynasty Baseball League Season Preview – National League

Note: This introduction is the same as the American league one.

**Disclaimer – All thoughts and analysis below are based on the knowledge, opinions and gut instinct of the KJNL Houston Astros GM (sometimes known as Brad Atkinson) and may be biased in many, many ways . . . if you are somehow offended by some of the material below feel free to stuff my e-mail/IM inbox full of hateful messages, but also expect anything you write to be part of future columns . . . bribes are accepted and flattery will get you everywhere, I’m totally for sale J **

Now that the legal jargon is out of the way, let’s get on with the meat shall we?

The preview will go as follows. As based on the rosters posted on kjnlbaseball.tripod.com I will show projected starting lineups (all batting positions, top 4 SP and top 3 RP) for each team, give a few thoughts on the methods the team is building its roster by (or at least how it appears), point out any obvious holes, list briefly any MLB ready MiLB players and give the ability for the team to function in the upcoming FA auction period. Then at the end I will make predictions for the playoff races based on my obviously limited expertise in the dynasty baseball realm. Then everyone will (or should) be able to comment on my comments and we can all get closer and more competitive as a league. Or it will all degenerate into an arguing free for all at which point we will all be happy that we live all across the country because the soaring gas prices make driving and or flying 1000 miles to beat someone’s ass totally stupid economically.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

The Braves drafted their home town team and I would call that team a mixed team more than an expensive team, but it really doesn’t matter because as he told me in the first few weeks of the league “I don’t like to have to count on any one team too heavily, they have a bad week, you have a bad week, it’s not good for winning.” I’m probably paraphrasing of course, since the conversation took place some 4 months ago, but trade he did, a lot and always to his benefit. Preying on the inexperienced owners who weren’t sure of the values of certain draft picks, the Braves amassed all of his MiLB draft picks early and was done picking minor leaguers in the first 4 rounds. His MLB team has few Braves to be found and all of them are either young guys with lots of upside or studs. It’s honestly hard to tell whether many of the players on this solid team were drafted or traded for by just looking.

Projected Lineup


C
Mike Napoli
Los Angeles (AL)
1B
Mark Teixeira
Atlanta
2B
Howie Kendrick
Los Angeles (AL)
SS
Michael Young
Texas
3B
Miguel Cabrera
Detroit
OF
Torii Hunter
Los Angeles (AL)
OF
Vladimir Guerrero
Los Angeles (AL)
OF
Gary Sheffield
Detroit
Util
Andruw Jones
Los Angeles (NL)
SP
Johan Santana
New York (NL)
SP
Tim Hudson
Atlanta
SP
Chad Billingsley
Los Angeles (NL)
SP
Rich Harden
Oakland
RP
Bobby Jenks
Chicago (AL)
RP
BJ Ryan
Toronto
RP
Pat Neshek
Minnesota

Wow!! Comparable to the Mariners lineup in the AL, it looks like the Braves might be the team to beat over here in the NL. Of course I’ll save my actual predictions for after I have reviewed all of the teams. The lineup is All-Star filled and balanced, maybe a bit light on speed, but not by much. Unlike the Mariners however, this team has a bench to match and a MiLB system built to produce players sooner rather than later. Look for the Braves to be making more moves or to be releasing some real quality players come next off-season. Bench players not listed above: Edwin Encarnacion, Lastings Milledge, Yunel Escobar, Wily Mo Pena, Joe Blanton and Jo-Jo Reyes.

Obvious holes: Mike Napoli, C, is still projected to platoon for the Angels. Jeff Clement is in the minors here for the Braves, but word out of Seattle is that with Kenji Johjima in the starting role, Jamie Burke as a solid back-up and Jose Vidro slotted in at DH that Clement is looking at another year in AAA, barring injuries. SP depth is slightly limited, but I am being nitpicky here.

MLB ready MiLB: This system is full of them thanks to early MiLB draft picks. Brandon Jones and Jordan Schafer were said to be in the CF mix in Atlanta before the Kotsay signing. Jay Bruce will have a shot at CF in Cincy against Freel and Hopper. Brandon Wood could get a shot on the left side of the infield for the Angels. Adam Jones will start in the OF for Baltimore barring an injury or a complete meltdown. Clement was discussed above and could push his way for AB’s. Daric Barton will be given the 1B opening day nod in Oakland. Johnny Cueto will spend the spring battling for a 5th rotation spot in Cincy and Matt Antonelli is looking good for taking over 2B in San Diego.

FA Projection: without a lot of holes to fill and $7.5M in cap room to work with look for the Braves to either go after filling that catcher hole with one big bid . . . more likely though is to wait until the season starts and go his favorite route of the trade for a hot Catcher.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs went the cheap team route in the team draft, but there are few cheap teams out there with top end talent like the Florida Marlins. They traded away Dontrelle and Miggy Cabrera, just like the real Marlins did and while I like the Dontrelle move I am not as big on the Cabrera one. The Cubs also drafted veteran studs to fill in lineup holes and took a chance on Alex Gordon.

Projected Lineup


C
Bengie Molina
San Francisco
1B
Justin Morneau
Minnesota
2B
Dan Uggla
Florida
SS
Hanley Ramirez
Florida
3B
Alex Gordon
Florida
OF
Johnny Damon
New York (AL)
OF
Shane Victorino
Philadelphia
OF
Josh Willingham
Florida
Util
Jeremy Hermida
Florida
SP
Justin Verlander
Detroit
SP
John Lackey
Los Angeles (AL)
SP
Chris Young
San Diego
SP
Mark Buehrle
Chicago (AL)
RP
Chad Cordero
Washington
RP
Kevin Gregg
Florida
RP
Brad Hennessey
San Francisco

Great starting rotation, Buehrle is coming off an off year, but the rest are studs. The bullpen is solid, two closers and some holds guys . . . but there are questions about every one of them and their roles in 2008. The batting lineup will go the way that the youth does. Hermida, Uggla, Ramirez, Willingham and Gordon are all prone to the streakiness and inconsistency of youth and there isn’t a whole lot in the way of backup if they go down . . . on the other hand the veterans are as solid as they come . . . Morneau, Damon and Molina should all be 500 AB, average year for each of them . . . just like they have been for the last 3 years.

Obvious holes: No real holes here, just a lot of dependence on young players.

MLB ready MiLB: There are some possible contributors ready here. Soria should close in KC. Bourn will start in center for Houston and if he does what they think he can he may lead the league in SB and runs. Erick Aybar is set to compete with Cesar Izturis and Brandon Wood for the Angels SS job and Elijah Dukes may finally get his shot with Washington.

FA Prediction: The Cubs have some $31M in cap room and some depth holes to fill. If there were any FA’s out there that were high on their list I feel confident that they would have drafted them, they could make some rumblings, but they might be confident to stand pat too.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals took the hometown team, who I think can officially be described as an expensive team, most of their young, cheap talent can still be put under the heading of unproven, and their mainstays are mostly over $8M per player with the exception of David Eckstein. They have supplemented the Cardinals draft pick with draftees that are mid-range to cheap on salary and long on talent. I think the Cardinals have only executed a few trades.

Projected Lineup


C
Yadier Molina
St. Louis
1B
Albert Pujols
St.Louis
2B
Placido Polanco
Detroit
SS
David Eckstein
Toronto
3B
Scott Rolen
Toronto
OF
Aaron Rowand
San Francisco
OF
Jose Guillen
Kansas City
OF
MHM
??
Util
MHM
??
SP
Felix Hernandez
Seattle
SP
Jered Weaver
Los Angeles (AL)
SP
Adam Wainwright
St. Louis
SP
Mulder/Carpenter
St. Louis
RP
Jason Isringhausen
St. Louis
RP
Huston Street
Oakland
RP
MHM
??

The MHM’s on this team are mostly there because I am not as familiar with the St. Louis lineup as I should be. All four of the Cardinals young OF are here on the roster and so is Cameron Maybin. One of them will fill in the 3rd OF and another in the Util slot. The MHM in the RP slot is because of the possibility of some holds guys being there, but no one that jumps out at me. The bats outside of the MHM’s are veteran and solid, but there is no real speed there. The starters have high ceilings but may not reach them this year, or they may all explode and have great years. Two solid closers combined with Pujols, Rowand, Rolen, Polanco and Guillen are the heart of this team.

Obvious holes: Yadier Molina is a defensive specialist at catcher, as is Eckstein at SS. Rolen’s glove has never been questioned but injuries have de-railed him of late. The same with Mulder and Carpenter, Carpenter won’t be back until August at the earliest. In my opinion, this team needs a fantasy style catcher, a fantasy style SS and a good, veteran starter.

MLB ready MiLB: Brandon Morrow and Luke Hochevar should both have roles on their respective teams, Morrow most likely in his set-up role from last year (settling the MHM there) and Hochevar in the KC rotation. The rest are probably at least a year away, though Wladimir Balentien could get a look in Seattle with Adam Jones gone to Baltimore if one of the three starters out west (Ibanez, Ichiro, Wilkerson) goes down.

FA Projection: The Cards have some $16M+ of bidding power . . . I expect them to use it to fill the holes as stated above.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds selected the Blue Jays out of the team draft. I would qualify that as a mixed pick . . . Glaus, Ryan, Wells, Halladay and Burnett are expensive while McGowan, Accardo, Hill, Rios and Lind are not. The Reds have gone through a recent ownership change and the two managing styles seem to prefer the trade to the draft . . . although realistically, the latest management team didn’t really get that chance.

Projected Lineup


C
Josh Bard
San Diego
1B
Kevin Youkilis
Boston
2B
Aaron Hill
Toronto
SS
Orlando Cabrera
Chicago (AL)
3B
David Wright
New York (NL)
OF
Vernon Wells
Toronto
OF
Adam Dunn
Cincinnati
OF
MHM
??
Util
Chipper Jones
Atlanta
SP
Roy Halladay
Toronto
SP
Brett Myers
Philadelphia
SP
Aaron Harang
Cincinnati
SP
??
??
RP
Brad Lidge
Philadelphia
RP
Todd Jones
Detroit
RP
Cla Meredith
San Diego

The MHM at the 3rd OF spot is not a particularly skilled one . . . Reed Johnson back off a big injury along side the constant platoons of Matt Stairs and Ross Gload. I can’t find a 4 SP on the roster, Chad Durbin and Josh Towers are both candidates, but they aren’t on their listed team’s depth charts. The three that are there are among the most solid in the league, if Myers turns back to form. The bullpen is solid with two save guys and two holds guys, but no real depth behind them. Overall this roster seems short and may be incomplete.

Obvious holes: Starting pitching, the three that are here are wonderful, but they may not be enough to contend with other teams rotating at least 5 starters. 3rd OF is a major weakness anytime you are hoping that Gload, Stairs or Reed Johnson can become a solid fantasy contributor day in and day out.

MLB ready MiLB: Burton, O’Flaherty and Logan provide even more bullpen depth for a team where this is already a strength. Abreu will be on the MLB roster out of spring training, but may not have a spot except on the bench. Bobby Livingston got a lot of experience in 10 starts last year, but his name is not among those competing for the rotation in Cincinnati.

FA Projection: With $12M to bid with I am not sure that the Reds can fill the holes they need to fill unless they spend very wisely . . . depending on how the new GM wants to handle it they will either be big and splashy or quiet, but effective.

Bold NL East Prediction:

This is a one team race . . . the Braves. The Cubs can challenge the Braves if ALL of their youth comes through with solid years, the numbers that the Cub youngsters put up will determine whether the Cubs are challenging the Braves, competing for a wild card spot or out of it all together.

NL West

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies had a simple strategy . . . take the World Champs (a mixed team believe it or not, with the emergence of Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury and Papelbon on the cheap side), draft cheap, young and talented and only make a deal when it obviously benefits your team. Simple and effective, expect nothing less from the Commish.

Projected Lineup


C
Dioner Navarro
Tampa Bay
1B
Lance Berkman
Houston
2B
Dustin Pedroia
Boston
SS
Troy Tulowitzki
Colorado
3B
Mike Lowell
Boston
OF
Manny Ramirez
Boston
OF
Travis Buck
Oakland
OF
Jacoby Ellsbury
Boston
Util
David Ortiz
Boston
SP
Josh Beckett
Boston
SP
Diasuke Matsuzaka
Boston
SP
Jeremy Guthrie
Baltimore
SP
Francisco Liriano
Minnesota
RP
Jonathan Papelbon
Boston
RP
Hideki Okajima
Boston
RP
Johnathan Broxton
Los Angeles (NL)

A strong young lineup peppered slightly with older power punchers, whether that be on the pitching side or on the hitting side. There are a few question marks surrounding the lineup. Can many of these 2007 rookies build on their performances into 2008? That’s the main question. Berkman, Lowell, ManRam and Big Papi should combine for 375 runs, 130 HR and nearly 500 RBI easily . . . and that’s a hell of a total to build your team around. The bullpen is guaranteed to get the saves out of Boston, and a lot of holds this year. Honestly, this team COULD contend now, but it’s really built to dominate the future.

Obvious holes: A little weak in saves, until Saito retires of course and at catcher. Dioner Navarro is now 24 years old and is reaching that “put up or shut up” time in his career when his batting problems can no longer be excused because of his age.

MLB ready MiLB: Joey Votto and Homer Bailey should both have starting jobs in Cincy this year, but there are question marks around them. Meloan could contribute out of the Dodger bullpen, but odds are that he will get another September callup this year.

FA Projection: Not sure if any catchers are out there, or closers as these are the holes that the Rockies have, but $21M in cap room either means a good look at the FA market or more likely, saving room to pay these young studs as they grow up and begin to dominate the league.

Houston Astros

The Astros also drafted their home town team, a sort of a theme in the NL it seems, and I would call that an expensive draft choice. All of their quality players (and there are not very many of them) are fairly expensive to deal with. The Astros then went on a trading frenzy that hasn’t stopped yet with two more trades in the last two days. In the drafts they tend to focus on mid-range to cheap salary players that are talented.

Projected Lineup


C
Brian McCann
Atlanta
1B
James Loney
Los Angeles (NL)
2B
Kazuo Matsui
Houston
SS
Miguel Tejada
Houston
3B
Ty Wigginton
Houston
OF
Eric Byrnes
Arizona
OF
Hunter Pence
Houston
OF
Josh Hamilton
Houston
Util
MHM
??
SP
Roy Oswalt
Houston
SP
AJ Burnett
Toronto
SP
Ted Lilly
Chicago (NL)
SP
Brandon Backe
Houston
RP
Trevor Hoffman
San Diego
RP
Joe Borowski
Cleveland
RP
Heath Bell
San Diego

A solid team and one of the rare instances in the KJNL league where the MHM is not a burden, but a boon. Included at the DH MHM are Frank Thomas, Randy Winn, Michael Cuddyer and Lyle Overbay . . . all quality players and they show the depth of bats in this organization. Oswalt is the obvious ace here, while Burnett and Lilly are solid but not spectacular. Backe has some injury questions surrounding him, but Brian Bannister and Wandy Rodriguez can fill the hole if need be. One of the strongest bullpens in the league as Jon Rauch and Chad Qualls are also on the roster, the Astros can shift between holds and saves depending on where they need to compete on a week to week basis.

Obvious holes: 2B, Matsui had a decent year for the Rockies this year and the Astros are counting on that again in a similar lineup. If Matsui goes down then Ty Wigginton’s 2B eligibility can come in handy if a replacement 3B is found. Back of the rotation is a little weak with Backe coming off Tommy John, Bannister entering his second year and the Jekyll and Hyde show that is Wandy Rodriguez.

MLB ready MiLB: JR Towles should be the starting Catcher in Houston this year and provides great McCann insurance. Brian Wilson is supposed to be the closer in San Francisco this year if he doesn’t have a meltdown in spring training . . . like he did last year. Troy Patton, Juan Gutierrez, Felipe Paulino and Kevin Slowey will all compete for starting jobs this year . . . though only Patton and Slowey are expected to have a good chance. Josh Anderson might have an outside shot at getting CF or a 4th OF spot with Atlanta if he keeps up his hot hitting ways from September.

FA Prediction: The Astros have around $7M in cap room according to the site . . . look for them to make one big signing, and maybe a couple of very small ones to fill holes.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers drafted a cheap team with a couple of expensive players in the Indians. They haven’t made a lot of trades and have been content to draft quality and some fairly expensive players in building their roster. They aren’t carrying very many pitchers at all.

Projected Lineup


C
Victor Martinez
Cleveland
1B
Paul Konerko
Chicago (AL)
2B
Ian Kinsler
Texas
SS
Johnny Peralta
Cleveland
3B
Hank Blalock
Texas
OF
Grady Sizemore
Cleveland
OF
Ichiro Suzuki
Seattle
OF
Jermaine Dye
Chicago (AL)
Util
Travis Hafner
Cleveland
SP
CC Sabathia
Cleveland
SP
Fausto Carmona
Cleveland
SP
Javier Vasquez
Chicago (AL)
SP
Scott Baker
Minnesota
RP
Jose Valverde
Houston
RP
Rafael Betancourt
Cleveland
RP
Joaquin Benoit
Texas

A very solid, balanced lineup . . . power and speed . . . all of them except Ichiro should go for 20 HR and three of them should steal at least 25 bases. The starting pitching has a few question marks behind Sabathia. How will the youngsters fare? Who is in line behind the people listed above? The pitching bench is woefully short. The trade of Lincecum for Valverde filled a glaring need, but created a gaping hole in the lineup. The acquisition today of Borowski for Chris Ray solved the same problem without creating the same need. The starting pitching on this team must stay healthy because there is no depth to fill it in.

Obvious holes: Pitching depth in general, though the last couple of days have seen bullpen holes filled. If any of their pitchers gets hurt, even on the short term . . . it could be a bad week for the Dodgers.

MLB ready MiLB: Asdrubal Cabrera was the starting 2B for the Indians the latter part of the year and Shin Soo Choo was getting some regular AB’s as well . . . both figure to return to those roles.

FA projection: with $15M in cap room and a need for starting pitching, the Dodgers will do just that . . . go and get it.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants took the cheapest, most talented team out there, made a couple of trades and made their draft picks and really haven’t done a whole lot besides that. I am not sure that they even know that the FA auction has begun.

Projected Lineup


C
Kenji Johjima
Seattle
1B
Carlos Pena
Tampa Bay
2B
BJ Upton
Tampa Bay
SS
Harris/Frandsen
TB/SF
3B
Akinori Iwamura
Tampa Bay
OF
Carl Crawford
Tampa Bay
OF
Delmon Young
Minnesota
OF
Luke Scott
Baltimore
Util
Joe Mauer
Minnesota
SP
Scott Kazmir
Tampa Bay
SP
Jamie Shields
Tampa Bay
SP
Noah Lowry
San Francisco
SP
Shawn Hill
Washington
RP
Al Reyes
Tampa Bay
RP
Dan Wheeler
Tampa Bay
RP
Randy Messenger
San Francisco

A good lineup, but honestly . . . you get what you pay for. There are some stars here, but they all have huge question marks around them with the exception of Crawford, Mauer and Kazmir. When your payroll is only $29M and the salary cap is $100M, your lineup will show its deficiencies. Relying on Luke Scott, Shawn Hill and Dan Wheeler to be solid fantasy contributors on a week to week basis seems like a scary proposition to me . . . but those players should be getting regular chances and some of them for the first time in their careers . . . maybe it will boom for the Giants, I rather think it’s more likely to bust.

Obvious holes: SS, general pitching depth. There are only 3 relievers on the whole roster. Frandsen could be a solid fantasy contributor, but he is not guaranteed a job and Harris is iffy at best.

MLB ready MiLB: Evan Longoria and not much else. The Rays dealt Delmon Young to give Upton a spot in the OF, letting Iwamura move to 2B and giving Longoria the job at 3B he deserves. When/if all of these players get eligible at these positions, it could solve some of the Giants OF problems.

FA projection: The Giants have more than $70M to spend on free agents, but they haven’t logged in to the message board since February 18th . . . they are missing out, but look for them to be active once they figure out what they are missing.

Bold NL West Prediction

This division should be the most hotly contested one out of the four. All of the teams have solid lineups and all of the teams have questions surrounding that solid lineup. The team with the least questions is the Astros. The team with the highest upside if everyone plays to expected levels is the Rockies. The Dodgers and Giants can compete on the offensive side of the game, but their pitching depth leaves them vulnerable to the length of the season. In a race too close to call (because the youngsters on the Rockies can go in any direction) The Rockies or the Astros should win this division. I will say officially that it will be the Rockies so that I am not called biased.

Bold National League Prediction

I have the Braves winning the East and the Rockies/Astros winning the West.

The other team of the Rockies and Astros should be a wild card team while the final spot comes down to a race between the three teams left in the NL East . . . I really think that the Giants and Dodgers are going to struggle with their pitching depth. I give the race for the last wild card spot to the Cubs. I believe their youth will come through.

Predicted NL Playoff Seeds:
#1 Braves
#2 Rockies
#3 Cubs
#4 Astros